"One should doubtless keep an open mind...though open at both ends, like the food pipe, and have a capacity for excretion as well as intake." -- Northrop Frye, 'The Great Code'
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Notley speaks from other side of mouth mumbles reassuring double-speak to oil industry forum
It's pretty early on so only time will tell. On the one hand, I suspect the NDP wants to win re-election in 2019 and taking a strong anti-oil sands stance will ensure that doesn't happen. At the same time much of their base will get angry if they are too centrist and Notley doesn't strike me as a strong enough person like say Romanow or Doer in keeping her left wing nutcases in check. She seems more like Mike Harcourt or Bob Rae who were both moderates but got screwed over by their more left wing elements with the former dumped for being insufficiently left wing and the latter seeming to just anger everyone as his policies were incoherent. I do think Canada is going through a strong left wing shift and what's scary is asides from the Mediterranean countries in Europe, nowhere else in the developed world is seeing a similar shift. At the same time maybe like in the early 90s it will be short-lived and once people see the results they will swing back.
Alain, True, the only surprise would be Notley doing anything that didn't hurt the oil industry. What's not clear is how much pain she's going to inflict and how quickly.
Anon, I tend to agree but am more pessimistic. I think this shift has been going on for some time (decades). The left long ago began capturing and dominating key cultural institutions, particularly the education system where pro-left indoctrination is well entrenched and conservative values have been either marginalized or demonized. Their success in this has been gradually translating into more political power. I think Europe has been ahead of North America in this with Canada not far behind and the USA more resistant but losing ground. Reversal of this will be very difficult if not impossible without some kind of severe economic downturn (attempted recovery from which would no doubt involve more destructive leftist prescriptions, like spending our way out of it). Other than that the future looks rosy:-\
I would argue the swing to the left is not so much educational and cultural institutions but more generational. If you look at most polls, generally parties on the right tend to lead amongst those born before 1945 and if they don't they usually lose badly. That cohert grew up before we had much of our social safety net and had a strong work ethic that you had to work hard to get ahead in life. Those born between 1945-1985 tend to vote whichever way things go overall while those born after 1985 tend to lean heavily to the left. I think the reason for this is twofold.
1. Their parents unlike earlier generations spoiled them a lot so just as their parents gave them stuff without earning it they expect the same from the government when adults. 2. Many graduated right around the recession of 2008 and slow growth since thus have had a tough time finding good paying jobs thus why they lean left.
The good news is for #2, once the baby boomers start to retire this should create more openings never mind when they have to pay more for pensions and health care they might change but we shall see.
As for Europe and the US, Europe the left has had more success historically been in the last decade parties on the left have had some of their worst showings ever while the centre-right has remained flat and far right rise dramatically. Generally with the working class its easy to use some other group as a scapegoat and in Europe it seems the EU and immigrants are often used as them whereas in Canada it is the rich and corporations. As for the United States GOP support amongst whites is just as high as it always have, the problem is unlike the Tories in Canada they have been unable to appeal amongst non-whites who are a growing demographic so winning 60% of the white nationally is no longer sufficient. Also they are a lot further to the right than even back in the Reagan years. If the GOP had greater appeal amongst non-whites are simply moved back to where they were in the 80s and 90s they would have a much easier time winning.
I do not disagree that it is good to point this out, but honestly only an idiot would be surprised. You get exactly what you vote for.
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty early on so only time will tell. On the one hand, I suspect the NDP wants to win re-election in 2019 and taking a strong anti-oil sands stance will ensure that doesn't happen. At the same time much of their base will get angry if they are too centrist and Notley doesn't strike me as a strong enough person like say Romanow or Doer in keeping her left wing nutcases in check. She seems more like Mike Harcourt or Bob Rae who were both moderates but got screwed over by their more left wing elements with the former dumped for being insufficiently left wing and the latter seeming to just anger everyone as his policies were incoherent. I do think Canada is going through a strong left wing shift and what's scary is asides from the Mediterranean countries in Europe, nowhere else in the developed world is seeing a similar shift. At the same time maybe like in the early 90s it will be short-lived and once people see the results they will swing back.
ReplyDeleteAlain, True, the only surprise would be Notley doing anything that didn't hurt the oil industry. What's not clear is how much pain she's going to inflict and how quickly.
ReplyDeleteAnon, I tend to agree but am more pessimistic. I think this shift has been going on for some time (decades). The left long ago began capturing and dominating key cultural institutions, particularly the education system where pro-left indoctrination is well entrenched and conservative values have been either marginalized or demonized. Their success in this has been gradually translating into more political power. I think Europe has been ahead of North America in this with Canada not far behind and the USA more resistant but losing ground. Reversal of this will be very difficult if not impossible without some kind of severe economic downturn (attempted recovery from which would no doubt involve more destructive leftist prescriptions, like spending our way out of it). Other than that the future looks rosy:-\
I would argue the swing to the left is not so much educational and cultural institutions but more generational. If you look at most polls, generally parties on the right tend to lead amongst those born before 1945 and if they don't they usually lose badly. That cohert grew up before we had much of our social safety net and had a strong work ethic that you had to work hard to get ahead in life. Those born between 1945-1985 tend to vote whichever way things go overall while those born after 1985 tend to lean heavily to the left. I think the reason for this is twofold.
ReplyDelete1. Their parents unlike earlier generations spoiled them a lot so just as their parents gave them stuff without earning it they expect the same from the government when adults.
2. Many graduated right around the recession of 2008 and slow growth since thus have had a tough time finding good paying jobs thus why they lean left.
The good news is for #2, once the baby boomers start to retire this should create more openings never mind when they have to pay more for pensions and health care they might change but we shall see.
As for Europe and the US, Europe the left has had more success historically been in the last decade parties on the left have had some of their worst showings ever while the centre-right has remained flat and far right rise dramatically. Generally with the working class its easy to use some other group as a scapegoat and in Europe it seems the EU and immigrants are often used as them whereas in Canada it is the rich and corporations. As for the United States GOP support amongst whites is just as high as it always have, the problem is unlike the Tories in Canada they have been unable to appeal amongst non-whites who are a growing demographic so winning 60% of the white nationally is no longer sufficient. Also they are a lot further to the right than even back in the Reagan years. If the GOP had greater appeal amongst non-whites are simply moved back to where they were in the 80s and 90s they would have a much easier time winning.