More on CLOUD

Top climate astrophysicist Dr. Nir Shaviv interprets the results of CERN's CLOUD experiment:

... The results are very beautiful and they demonstrate, yet again, how cosmic rays (which govern the amount of atmospheric ionization) can in principle have an effect on climate.

... it naturally explains the large solar/climate links. As a consequence, anyone trying to understand past (and future) climate change must consider the whole effect that the sun has on climate, not just the relatively small variations in the total irradiance (which is the only solar influence most modelers consider). This in turn implies (and I will write about it in the near future), that some of the 20th century warming should be attributed to the sun, and that the climate sensitivity is on the low side (around 1 deg increase per CO2 doubling).

Here's an earlier (before CLOUD results) presentation by Dr. Shaviv explaining the cosmic ray connection with climate:



See also: Henrik Svensmark.

Settling science

Results for CERN's CLOUD experiment have just been published.  Lawrence Solomon reports and reviews the backstory:

... The new findings point to cosmic rays and the sun — not human activities — as the dominant controller of climate on Earth.

The research, published with little fanfare this week in the prestigious journal Nature, comes from über-prestigious CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research...

... The hypothesis that cosmic rays and the sun hold the key to the global warming debate has been Enemy No. 1 to the global warming establishment ever since it was first proposed by two scientists from the Danish Space Research Institute, at a 1996 scientific conference in the U.K. Within one day, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Bert Bolin, denounced the theory, saying, “I find the move from this pair scientifically extremely naive and irresponsible.” He then set about discrediting the theory, any journalist that gave the theory credence, and most of all the Danes presenting the theory — they soon found themselves vilified, marginalized and starved of funding, despite their impeccable scientific credentials. [ie. the all too predictable "official" denial and efforts to suppress contrary evidence].

Lots more at WUWT.

See also [via FOS]:
GWPF Science News; physicsworld.com; Naturenews;  Paper abstract;  RealClimate blog post.

No evidence of CO2 influence on climate

According to Dr. Noor van Andel, speaking at the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI):

● The atmosphere has become more transparent to IR radiation in the past 60 years. The “greenhouse effect” has become less.

● Solar constant and the properties of water determine our climate

● Rising surface temperature is tightly controlled by increasing wet convection and concomitant upper tropospheric drying

● No observational evidence for influence of CO2 on past or present climate

● Strong observational correlation of solar magnetic activity with climate temperatures,  presumably via cloud condensation nucleation and albedo

It's oceans, clouds and cosmic rays, not CO2.

[via FOS]

Cosmic rays and climate - update on CERN's CLOUD experiment

Last May the CLOUD experiment team at CERN took delivery of the project's cloud chamber.

To recap: AGW proponents deny that solar variation plays any significant role in climate change. Deniers! However:

"I think the evidence for a link between reconstructions of past climate change and solar activity is too strong to ignore," explains Jasper Kirkby, Spokesperson for the CLOUD experiment. "There are a lot of observations showing that variations of the sun seem to be affecting the climate, but we don’t yet know what the mechanism for this is."

"The aim of CLOUD is to understand whether or not cosmic rays can affect clouds and climate, by studying the microphysical interactions of cosmic rays with aerosols, cloud droplets and ice particles." This is one of the possible mechanisms for solar-climate variability since the solar wind – the stream of charged particles ejected from the sun – varies over time and affects the intensity of the cosmic rays that reach the Earth.

... This is the first time a particle accelerator has been used to study atmospheric and climate science and CLOUD therefore lies at an intersection between several different disciplines.

Also note this from Kirby:

"... Particle physicists are always happier to look at the simplest, most fundamental systems, whereas most atmospheric and climate physicists approach from one of the most complex systems possible – namely the atmosphere and climate."

Data collection will begin later in 2009.

Now this is science. None of that "the debate is over", "the science is settled" BS.

Solar variations - chief suspect in global warming

Contrary to widely held opinion - the science is far from settled.

Lawrence Solomon’s ‘The Deniers’ series in the National Post has highlighted the work of several scientists doing work on how changes in solar output influence climate change on earth. Today in ‘Part XIV' of the series he features Sami Solanki, a researcher with the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research. Some very interesting points:


The "science is settled"? Hardly!

Here's Dr. Solanki's presentation on the Sun/climate connection. It's excellent!

Earth hasn't been this hot in 8,000 years and, he predicts, the hot spell will carry on for a few more decades before the sun turns down the heat.
"The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures."
Dr. Solanki gives cold comfort to those who claim that global warming took off with the Industrial Revolution...an almost perfect correlation between solar cycles and air temperatures over the land masses in the Northern hemisphere, going back to the mid 19th century.
He also believes that evidence that greenhouse gases have played a larger role in climate change may some day turn up...however, he hasn't seen anything compelling that undermines his own findings.
Dr. Solanki is especially taken with the work of the Danish National Space
Agency, which demonstrated the dramatic effect that cosmic rays can have on cloud formation, and thus temperatures -- "the mechanism is just too beautiful to ignore..."
Dr. Solanki's recommendation: more research, and lots of it....Until the research is in, he believes, the story of what drives climate change remains unknown.