Monday, March 2, 2015

Justin's plunging "inevitability" numbers

Warren Kinsella at the Hill Times:
... a few days ago... Abacus’ poll showed ... that, between last August and now, Justin Trudeau’s inevitability had slipped 15 percentage points. That is, a lot fewer folks expected him to win, now. 

Fifteen points. That’s a lot. The last time that number happened to the Liberal Party of Canada, in fact, was a decade ago. Remember? Paul Martin commenced his “Mad As Hell” tour ...


Anonymous said...

difference is though paul martin knew what he was talking about half the time. where as Justin Trudeau does not.

Anonymous said...

After seeing how many recent elections have turned out differently than people have predicted, making any predictions at this point is silly. The reality is with low turnout, low poll response rate, any poll regardless of the numbers needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Anyone who says they are near certain that a given party will win is full of it. While at the moment I think a Tory minority would be the most likely outcome a lot can happen in the next 7 months so any outcome is possible.

Anonymous said...

Polling before federal elections have always been wrong, way wrong. Personally, I've always felt that Justines polling numbers were always suspect... who are these people that would vote for a substitute drama teacher with an infamous name and no experience? The polls said that Iggy and PM Harper were essentially in a dead heat, something like 33% Lib, 32% Con, it was basically the same numbers for Dijon when he was leading the Libs. The polls never had PM Harper ahead and always low balled his numbers while exaggerating higher numbers for the Libs. The fact is the polls have consistently got the numbers wrong. The polls always favour the Libs and low ball the Cons. I suspect that Trudozos numbers are even weaker than is being led on and will continue to get weaker as the election approaches. Most polling is financed by the media to create a narrative, a narrative like "Truduaemania" is here again, but of course without the nuisance of truth, or the precedent of having been right before. The more Canadians see and hear of Trudozo the clown the more they will likely vote for someone, anyone else, and the Libs and their media comrades know it. The media will campaign for Trudozo as ferociously as they did for Dijon and the Iggster, unfortunately for the media elites the results will be the same.

Anonymous said...

there can be NO Conservative minority
we must work hard for a Conservative MAJORITY
NDP Green and LIBERALS will form a coalition and form Government
hard work ahead for all

WTF said...

Hell hath no fury like a Warren scorned!!

Anonymous said...

anon@03/03/2015 at 1:30 AM - I wouldn't say Trudeau Sr. was widely hated rather very polarizing figure. He was quite unpopular in the West especially Alberta as well as amongst Quebec nationalists. But in Ontario and Atlantic Canada he was well liked. Lets remember a large portion of the population if not most want a big activist government and despite all the problems it causes many prefer equality to prosperity and freedom. As for poll numbers, a lot will depend on the ballot question and intervening events. If Trudeau continues to make bozo eruptions he will likely lose, but if on the other hand he performs surprisingly well in the debates it could work with him.

Also as to why so many like him, here are my observations and most fall into one of those two groups among his supporters.

1. They liked his father and thus assume he will be the same. I hate to say it but having lived in BC and Ontario there is a lot more nepotism down East and its widely assumed the offspring will be the same as their parents. I get asked all the time why I don't work at my Dad's company, while for me the idea I should work for my father just reeked of nepotism and our family always believed I should find my own way. And interestingly enough many of the same people who ask me this are the same ones who think this of Trudeau.

2. They are on the left side of the political spectrum and hate Harper with a passion and thus will vote for whomever has the best chance of defeating him. Whether people like it or not, those on the political left outnumber those on the political right in Canada. Not by a massive margin but its probably something like 60% on the left, 40% on the right.

Anonymous said...

anonymous #4 - I think it will depend on the closeness to. If say the Tories are only ten seats ahead of the Liberals, then yes there will be a coalition or an arrangement where the NDP agrees to not vote against the Liberals on any confidence motion without actually forming a formal coalition (otherwise similar to Rae/Peterson deal in 1985 in Ontario). However if say the Tories fall only five seats of a majority, I think a coalition is far less likely due to the potential backlash it will face. Likewise if the Tories win a minority and Harper promises to resign, I suspect they will want to let the new leader govern a bit before defeating the government.

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