Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Conservatives win two by-elections, Trudeau takes a victory lap

By-elections in Whitby-Oshawa (Cons margin +8.5%) and Yellowhead (Cons margin +42.6%).  For Justin Trudeau, that means it's time for a victory speech:

Bryn Weiss points out that the turnout for both byelections was crappy - for Whitby Oshawa 32% and for Yellowhead a miserable 16%.  The tiny Yellowhead turnout says to me that conservative voters stayed away in droves (liberal voters not so much) and that in 2015 when the turnout doubles, triples or quadruples that margin in favour of Conservatives will rise accordingly.  Whitby-Oshawa - who knows?


Anonymous said...

How bizarre, how bizarre.
The man-child who would be king lives on a planet where innocents are massacred in the name of "root causes", the economy heals itself and ya don't need to lock yer back door.
Losing is winning and oh, those earnings of yours could be spent far better by the Gubbamint.
The spawn of cowardly Pierre and shaggy Maggie is on a roll.

JR said...

Another theory has it that JT arrived in Whitby-Oshawa fully expecting a Lib win, so he had prepared only one speech, for that outcome. Being unable to adlib without sticking his foot in his mouth he gave his prepared speech including all the high drama and manufactured exclamations of triumph.

Bizarre is right.

Anonymous said...

All parties try to spin things in their favour. The one clear loser is the NDP, but between the Tories and the Liberals both sides can argue this shows things in their favour depending on what angle you want to look at from. Whitby-Oshawa went Liberal as recently as 2004 i.e. the last time the Liberals formed government so the fact the Tories held it could be a good sign they are still in front. On the other the Liberal vote when compared to 2011 went up dramatically and the Conservative vote dropped from 2011 so the Liberals can easily spin it that the momentum is in their favour and that the shift shows they would pick up more marginal seats and thus come out in front. The reality is the next election will depend on a lot on what happens between now and then so by-elections are just a snapshot, they are not predictors of what will actually happen.

Anonymous said...

Gee JR never considered that the Kid had only one speech written on his dinner napkin. (victory)
Sorta makes sense,in a one trick pony kinda way.
Losing is winning, a rumor is enough to publicly humiliate two cabinet ministers.
Just one more gaffe in the wall of shame.